时间：2025年12月5日10:00
地点：经管楼312室
主讲人：刘云川 教授，美国伊利诺伊大学香槟分校
题目：Self- or Rival-Revelation? Dynamic Information Design in Sequential Competition
摘要：In uncertain environments, consumers seek and interpret information to reduce ambiguity and guide their choices and purchase decisions. In this paper, we study how firms strategically design information about either themselves or their rivals to influence consumer purchase decisions in dynamic competition. We construct a dynamic Bayesian persuasion model in which a leader firm and a follower firm sequentially design and send their information to consumers to strategically shape consumers' beliefs on the two firms' product match. Our analysis shows that, strikingly, the leader firm may choose to “serve” the competing rival firm with a high risk gambler strategy of fully providing the rival information to consumers, especially when consumers have moderate prior beliefs for the leader firm. In addition, when consumers have relatively high prior beliefs for the leader firm, the leader firm may surprisingly choose a downward twisted self-revelation strategy, intentionally disseminating unfavorable signals about itself despite favorable product match to manipulate consumer purchase. Finally, we show that an increase in competition may intensify information manipulation.
个人简介：刘云川教授是美国伊利诺伊大学香槟分校(UIUC)终身教授，毕业于美国哥伦比亚大学，是市场营销、运营管理、供应链、信息管理、消费金融等方面的专家，他有很多文章发表在 Marketing Science 和 Management Science上。刘教授每年都名列伊利诺伊大学的优秀教师名单，曾被伊利诺伊大学 MBA 学生评选为年度教授最终候选人。刘教授现任 Decision Sciences 和 Service Sciences 副主编、曾任 Marketing Science 编委，多次获得 Management Science 和 Marketing Science 杰出评审奖，是华人学者营销协会的联合创办人，中国市场营销国际学术年会执行主席。刘教授也是伊利诺伊大学香槟分校商91麻豆中国项目主任，正在推动伊利诺伊大学香槟分校和中国若干大学的合作项目。